You will find on this page a Summary, the book's Contents, and a CV of the author.
Summary
The book argues that market democracy cannot solve the biosphere crisis, and that therefore a more appropriate form of governance is needed.
Part I describes the nature of the biosphere crisis. The crisis is essentially overpopulation and excessive per capita resource use causing major problems at the biosphere level, of which climate change is the most obvious.
It is argued that the nature of the problem, and the associated risks and uncertainties, must be understood by political leaders themselves, not just their advisers. For this and other reasons democratic forms of governance cannot provide a solution to the biosphere crisis, in part because democracy does not select leaders with the appropriate skills and attitudes.
Part II analyzes the reasons why market democracy cannot provide adequate governance.
Part III proposes an alternative non-authoritarian approach to governance, based in part on the ideas of John Stuart Mill, as one possible solution to the problem posed in Part I. It is presented as a stimulus to debate, not as the only or the best solution. Rejection of this solution does not in itself provide grounds for rejecting the arguments of Parts I and II.
The book is intended to stimulate debate on issues which are frequently avoided in democratic politics, but which must be taken into consideration if we are to be serious about solving the biosphere crisis. These include negative population growth, a zero-growth economy, reduced consumption by the rich countries, greater equality within and between countries, and the welfare of future generations.
Democracy or Survival is also topical in regard to electoral and constitutional reform (for instance in the UK), bringing lasting peace to the Middle East, and tackling global warming and regional climate change.
Title page, contents list
Note: pagination of downloadable chapters (mostly as in 1st edition, but I.2 as in 2nd edition) differs from that of the published version.
Preface and Introduction
I Problems: the Biosphere Crisis
I.1 Climate
The climate system involves a variety of feedback mechanisms and associated responses, including compensating mechanisms, uniformitarian change, catastrophic change and extreme events. Political leaders - and not just their advisers - need to understand the nature of the uncertainties and risks arising from climate change in order to provide effective leadership, and this requires training and exceptional skill.
I.2 Population
The argument of chapter 1 applies also to world population, which continues to grow at a near record rate. There needs to be a great deal more research into modelling of world population (cf climate-change research). Demographic transition based on economic growth cannot solve the biosphere crisis.
I.3 Natural Capital, Consumption & Optimum Population
The current world population is approaching 7 billion, and this is not sustainable. Natural capital cannot be continually degraded, and not all fertile land can be devoted to intensive food production; some is needed for other ecosystem services. 2-3 billion is the maximum sustainable world population if everyone is to enjoy a reasonable standard of living.
I.4 Conflict
Climate change and growing population are already contributing to conflict, and the situation can only become worse if the biosphere crisis is not solved. Population control by military means is likely if more humane methods are not implemented. Some military expenditure could be used to fund the research advocated in chapter I.2.
I.5 The Biosphere Crisis & Governance
Summary of the earlier chapters. Climate-change research can serve as a model for a similar approach to population growth, economics, and human society in general. Democratic politicians and most environmentalists fail to consider population as one of the most important causes of the biosphere crisis. Democratic governance cannot solve the biosphere crisis.
II Causes
II.1 The Individual and Society
The failure of market democracy to cope with the biosphere crisis can be traced in part to the prominence accorded to individualism. To clarify the problem, and to prepare the ground for later chapters, four general models relating the individual to society are described (N-, D-, C- and S-models). In market democracy excessive use is made of unrealistic D-models.
II.2 Individualism & the Anglo-american Model
The dependence of anglo-american society (market democracy as seen in the US and UK) on individualism is explored further, with implications for values, attitudes to population control, perception of mass suffering, short-termism & parochialism, and inequality. Other unhelpful aspects of the anglo-american model are also considered.
II.3 Institutionalized Irrationality
Rational governance will be required if the biosphere crisis is to be tackled. Various examples of commonly accepted irrational behavior and attitudes are criticized. Religions contribute disproportionately to irrationality in governance, and are a major obstacle to solving the biosphere crisis. The Middle East is considered as a microcosm of the global situation, especially with regard to population growth and competition for resources.
II.4 Problems with 'Democracy'
David Held's ten models of democracy and quasi-democratic forms of governance are outlined to help clarify the argument. Various uses (and abuses) of the term 'democracy' are distinguished, and it is argued that this terminological confusion contributes to the poor quality of the electorate and the inadequacy of democratic governance.
II.5 Problems with Democracy
Among various characterizations of democracy, Schumpeter's competitive-elitist model is highlighted, with its emphasis on the necessity, for good governance, of high quality in both electorate and leadership. This contrasts with the generally low quality of both in the anglo-american model. Market democracy encourages an ignorant, apathetic, short-termist and self-regarding electorate. Democracy (as adult-franchise representative government) is found wanting with respect to both the adult franchise and representation.
II.6 The Challenge Facing Us
Summary of parts I and II. The challenge is to design and implement a better form of governance to replace democracy.
III Solutions
III.1 The Biosphere
The current scientific understanding of climate, natural communities, and the biosphere in general is that they are complex systems with numerous interactions between components, including positive and negative feedbacks. Human society must be seen as a component in the biosphere, and itself an extraordinarily complex system with its own components. A new approach to governance, and to solving the biosphere crisis should be based on a system concept.
The biosphere offers a number of ecosystem services, one of which is the stimulus to improve our understanding of human society. The Russian zapovednik approach to nature conservation needs to be adopted worldwide.
III.2 A New Myth
The myth underlying market democracy is based on individualism, progress, and a money-dominated approach to values. This involves serious oversimplification and distortion, which cannot lead to effective policy making and implementation if the biosphere crisis is to be solved. A new myth is needed, based on a more sophisticated system approach to the understanding of human society and its place in the biosphere, to replace the puerile extremism of individualism and the D-model approach.
III.3 New Values
Invisible-hand theories are criticized in the context of the 'paradox of liberalism'. A set of values consistent with a system-based understanding of human society would require changes in our attitudes to procreative rights, economic growth, national and other group loyalties, the importance of wealth, competitive sport, and the rights of future generations. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights needs to be replaced by a more comprehensive Universal Charter of Rights & Obligations.
III.4 Education
Indoctrination of some kind is necessary in any harmonious society, and schools must play a major role in this. Ecoliteracy, political education, citizenship and foreign languages all need to be emphasized in order to inculcate a better understanding of the global human community and its place in the biosphere. Conflict-free cooperation rather than (conflict-based) teamwork should be encouraged, and this means less emphasis on competitive sports.
III.5 Replacing Democracy
A fundamental principle of democracy - political equality - is no longer tenable for either voting or candidacy for office. A higher quality of leadership is needed, and this means also a higher quality of electorate. John Stuart Mill stressed the need for minimum qualifications for the electorate, and a system of graded citizenship is recommended which involves different qualifications to vote according to the kind of election: almost universal franchise (subject to passing a citizenship test) would be appropriate for local elections, and smaller more highly qualified electorates would vote for higher levels of government. Political leaders would also require training before becoming candidates. The danger of a qualified electorate becoming an interest group needs to be addressed.
III.6 Supra-state Governance
The nationalism and statism embodied in the national state (Westphalia model) is no longer adequate if we are to cope with the biosphere crisis. The UN is probably incapable of reform in the required direction because it entrenches the Westphalia model and because it embodies Second-World-War-victor-state values. An expanding-club model, exemplified by the EU, is recommended as a means for building a multi-level structure of governance, eventually reaching global level. The two-state solution for the Middle East cannot bring lasting peace, and another solution is offered.
III.7 Managing Population
Procreation is not a private matter, and in some situations must be subject to public regulation. Population control should be by regulating fertility, not by increasing mortality, and mortality-reducing aid should be linked to fertility-reducing programmes. Each political entity needs a population policy based initially on self-sufficiency in food and some other resources. Humane voluntary means of controlling population are available, and the political will must be found to make them effective.
III.8 The End of History?
Francis Fukuyama's test of the 'end of history' is found wanting in the case of market democracy, since it involves the inconsistency of requiring a virtuous, knowledgeable and far-sighted electorate to solve the biosphere crisis while indoctrinating consumers to be self-regarding, ignorant, suggestible, stupid and short-termist. This makes it unlikely that anglo-american societies will ever achieve the required kind of electorate or political leadership, and should not be used as a model to guide political development.
Appendix: Disasters
A list of events encountered during the writing of the book is provided, to illustrate the impossibility of emotionally comprehending mass suffering. An emotional response to disasters is not enough: only a rational approach can bring justice to present and future generations.
References
Index
